2026 World Cup heat warning: Over 30% of matches face dangerous conditions in North America

A new analysis of 20 years of weather data suggests more than one-third of the 2026 World Cup's 104 matches could face dangerous heat and humidity levels across host cities in North America. The findings, summarised by World Soccer Talk from an NPR study, identify Dallas, Houston, Miami and Atlanta among the most at-risk venues — a development that could affect players, referees, stadium staff and travelling fans during the tournament.

Why it matters

High wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) readings indicate combined heat, humidity, sunlight and wind conditions that are more meaningful for human heat stress than air temperature alone. According to the analysis used in this report, projected WBGT values for multiple matches exceed the threshold considered dangerous, raising concerns about dehydration, heat exhaustion and heat stroke for participants and officials. With marquee players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal and Vinicius likely to appear in matches flagged by the study, the issue has potential to become a major talking point during the tournament.

Which host cities and matches are most at risk?

The analysis highlights four host cities as particularly vulnerable: Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Miami and Atlanta. Dallas and Houston produced the highest projected WBGT readings in the study, with several group-stage fixtures and at least one knockout match in those cities listed among the most concerning. Miami and Atlanta were flagged because humidity increases heat stress even where air temperatures are not the absolute highest.

• More than one-third of the tournament's 104 matches are projected to face high-risk heat conditions (based on the NPR analysis cited).
• Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston recorded the highest projected WBGT values in the study (projected WBGT around 84.2°F / 29.0°C for top-risk readings).
• Miami and Atlanta were identified for elevated risk because humidity raises WBGT even when air temperature is lower.
• Notable matches named in the analysis include Japan vs Netherlands and England vs Croatia in Dallas, and Portugal fixtures in Houston; Argentina vs Austria in Dallas; Brazil vs Scotland in Miami; and Spain matches in Atlanta.
• Some venues, including Vancouver, Seattle, the San Francisco Bay Area and Mexico City, were projected to have minimal risk with WBGT values below about 70°F / 21°C.

Player welfare and recent warnings

Medical experts cited in the analysis warn heat and humidity during high-intensity competition raise the risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion, heat stroke and related performance declines. The report also references a recent incident at the 2024 Copa America where an assistant referee collapsed in Kansas City, underlining the potential for heat to affect not only players but match officials and stadium staff.

What organisers and teams could do

The analysis notes that FIFA has used scheduling measures to try to reduce exposure to extreme heat. The study's projections nonetheless show multiple fixtures remain in high-risk categories despite scheduling efforts. The metadata does not include details of any additional mitigation plans from FIFA, confederations, teams or host cities; those would need confirmation from official sources.

What happens next

Tournament organisers, national teams and medical staff will likely monitor conditions closely as the tournament approaches and during matchdays. Given the study's findings, readers should watch for official guidance from FIFA and local host-city organisers on measures such as kick-off times, hydration breaks, cooling facilities and staff protections. Verification of the precise WBGT projections and any schedule or operational changes should be sought from the original NPR analysis and official FIFA match information.